Europe is chasing Southeast Asia harder than ever, but the region’s trade marriage to China and the United States isn’t going anywhere.
Leaders across Europe are pitching new alliances as Washington brings in more tariffs and Beijing grows more aggressive in disputed waters. But according to CNBC, the hard truth is this: the EU is still trailing behind in every major area that matters — trade, influence, and presence.
Last month, Chinese bomber planes showed up in the Paracel Islands, escalating tensions with the Philippines and reminding Southeast Asia exactly who’s boss in the South China Sea.
At the same time, the Biden-imposed 90-day tariff break — inherited and now carried on by President Trump — is ticking toward its July deadline. With both China and the US flexing muscle, Europe sees a small window to squeeze in as the third option.
Macron urges tighter ties in Asia defense forum
At the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, French President Emmanuel Macron asked for deeper cooperation between Europe and the Indo-Pacific, warning that global alliances were “eroding.” He compared China’s military posturing to Russia’s war in Ukraine, framing both as threats to international stability.
Macron wants to sell Europe as a steady hand to work with, but Asia isn’t buying it without the trade numbers to back it up.
Bob Herrera-Lim, managing director at Teneo, told CNBC that Europe is interested in selling arms and tapping into Southeast Asia’s natural resources to support its green and digital transition. But he was clear: it’s not enough. “Form follows function in Southeast Asia,” Bob said. “Relationships are built on economic ties in Southeast Asia, more than anything else.”
Europe may have signed deals with Singapore and Vietnam, but wider talks on a EU-ASEAN free trade agreement have gone nowhere for years. Céline Pajon, who heads Indo-Pacific research at Ifri, admitted the EU “still has progress to make” in building up presence and investment in the region.
China and the US dominate Southeast Asia’s trade lanes
In raw numbers, Europe is in third place and far behind. China has been Southeast Asia’s top trading partner since 2009, and its total trade hit $982.3 billion in 2024. The US was next with $476.8 billion. Europe managed only €258.7 billion, which is around $299.7 billion. And it’s not trending upward.
Bob said if China opens its domestic markets next month, Southeast Asia would rush in. “Independent of their politics around many of these issues,” he added, making it clear that values don’t pay the bills.
Even with growing tensions in the sea and in trade talks, Beijing still delivers what Southeast Asia needs. It’s fast, massive, and already embedded. Europe’s trade machine, by contrast, looks slow and scattered.
Still, Lizza Bomassi, research analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies, argued Europe offers something different — stable partnerships that don’t rely on power plays. “Europe’s value proposition lies in being a reliable partner in critical areas like energy security, green infrastructure, and digital governance,” Lizza said in an email to CNBC.
Céline said Southeast Asia could use the EU to diversify its options and reduce dependence on the two superpowers. More partners would raise the cost for China if it tried to escalate disputes, especially given Beijing’s obsession with its “peaceful rise” image.
But Europe doesn’t bring hard military power. Lizza explained that the EU-ASEAN relationship works more like a soft defense shield — it sends a message that Southeast Asia isn’t alone and has more friends at the table. That’s the diplomatic buffer. But friends don’t pay like customers do.
So yes, Europe wants in. It’s knocking at the door, hoping Southeast Asia lets it stay for dinner. But without better trade offers, faster deals, and deeper ties, this is just another guest on the sidelines.
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