Crypto influencer Arthur Hayes sent two bulk transactions of Ethena (ENA) to Binance in the past couple of days. The transactions happen at a time when ENA trades near its higher range, but down from a recent peak above $1.20.
Crypto influencer Arthur Hayes may be divesting his Ethena (ENA) holdings, after two significant transactions to Binance a few weeks apart. Just weeks before the current trades, Hayes spelled out a new strategy for a choppy market amid economic and geopolitical insecurity.
The recent ENA transactions are among the few big moves for Hayes in the past weeks. For now, his known wallets hold more than $26M worth of altcoins and tokens, mostly tied to the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem. Hayes has mentioned he expects the altcoin bull market to continue until March, while trying to make the best of trending projects and expanding DeFi value.
The latest inflow of ENA was valued at $6.46M, split between Binance and Bybit. This is the first major inflow after December 21, when Hayes deposited 7M ENA valued at $8.47M at the time. Before the most recent sale, the known wallets of Hayes received unstaked coins from Ethena’s ENA Silo, similar to the previous transaction.
Hayes is not a long-term holder of ENA, instead quickly accumulating and divesting 16.79M ENA. Despite selling ENA, Hayes has recommended the project as a source of passive income, encouraging others to buy USDe, while trying to calm fears about unexpected de-pegging events.
You could do all this nonsense or just buy USDe @ethena_labs , stake it, and earn the variable basis yield. https://t.co/CZClI3QRDB
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 10, 2025
Most of the holdings were acquired during a short-term dip at $0.67, making the best of the expanded ENA price. The previous sale also happened at prices close to $1, for a total estimated profit of $7.7M.
The recent moves suggest a winding down of the position, as ENA is currently trading near the middle of its range. ENA is one of the tokens responsive to bullish runs, reflecting the year-end rally for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
Will ENA renew its rally?
The question of whale moves suggests the ENA rally may be over, while seeking a favorable price to realize gains. Soon after the sale, ENA slid toward $0.80, back to its levels from November. ENA sentiment shifts between an expectation for a breakout and a potential longer accumulation period, as the project adjusts to the market’s new levels.
The sale happens at a time when ENA open interest is also trending downward, from over $600M to the $400M range. Most of the ENA leveraged positions are still long, and may be liquidated if the downward trend continues.
Additional factors brought down ENA by around 9% in 24 hours. The selling happened at a time when altcoins and tokens were closely watched for forming a bottom, or extending their downward trend. At this point, the Altcoin Season Index is frozen at around 49 points, as the market consolidates and few altcoins are outperforming.
Ethena winds down USDe supply
Ethena still carries $5.88B in value locked, based on the supply of USDe. The synthetic stablecoin benefits from an overall bullish expectation on Ethereum (ETH). After ETH dipped under $3,200, the trend may also affect the Ethena profitability.
Ethena still adjusts its risk even during bear markets, which may further decrease the supply of USDe. The token has already spread to multiple DeFi protocols, and only a small part may unwind.
During the 2024 bull market, USDe was the fastest-growing stablecoin to reach 5B in total supply. The token went on to rival even older stablecoins like DAI. Recently, the staked USDe (sUSDe) increased its premium to trade at $1.14, though remaining relatively illiquid. The main selling point of USDe is its relatively high passive yield of 29% for staking the asset. The staked version also allows for limited arbitrage through unstaking into USDe, though that option is not always available.
Ethena is solidly within the top 10 of DeFi projects, but not yet in the top 5, which mostly hold value due to ETH staking. The protocol surpasses even Maker, Pendle, Morpho, and other relatively new DeFi hubs that are trying to build up liquidity.
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