Bitcoin fell 4.26% to $58.13k on August 16 and $61k on August 13. While BTC often mimics the stock market’s fall, this drop has no ties to such an event. However, this is not all. At the same time, a significant surge in trading volume was seen—over $32.79 billion changed hands on Wednesday—up 14.17%. The dual dynamic prompts the question: Is there any hope for Bitcoin in August, or are we seeing a more significant market correction?
Short-Term Perspective
The chart points to a possible twin peak pattern, in which two distinct prices or volume activity peaks occur within a short period. Within the shaded region, respectively, are two prominent green peaks that depict a rapid increase in price or volume activity afterward drops. A twin peak is forming here, which indicates a potential reversal, either a top or bottoming-out pattern.
In the lower section of the chart, we have The Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) inching higher, suggesting that the price is likely nearing a bottom. The analysis above agrees with the thesis that a twin peak formation is in development to form at some point near $42K-$43.5K, which will potentially herald further price reduction before Bitcoin’s long-term upward trajectory continues where it left off.
Long-Term Perspective: The September Fed Rate Cut Decision
A pivotal moment for Bitcoin on September 17 will be the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision. Even the Fed makes more bulls, which could be what is needed to get Bitcoin out of this hump. It is anticipated that Bitcoin will see a push towards new all-time highs (ATHs) of up to $80k — 85k in the days following this announcement by the Fed. Such a forecast is based on the larger macroeconomic view related to Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty in monetary policy.
If Bitcoin can be established as the asset of choice, this increased demand will likely lead to its prices soaring like never before while traditional markets adjust to their new reality post-Fed rate cut.
An Altseason Might Be Oncoming:
After Bitcoin’s much-anticipated run-up to new ATHs, the market is likely to transition into a full-blown Altcoin season in December. After major Bitcoin-prices moves, altcoins typically stage spectacular rallies as investors chase higher returns on the smaller-cap assets. That’s why a strong December for the altcoin market is to be expected, with the reinflated interest and capital following Bitcoin’s move. As aggressive as it may sound, it is worth being prepared since Bitcoin’s recent price actions featured a significant price dip. However, with the twin peaks signal, in the long term, Bitcoin may be creating the prelude to a considerable bottoming formation that will result in an influential 2025 year-end charge. For now, investors should look ahead to the September 17th Fed rate decision.